Compiled 13:17 UTC · live data pull 2026-11-07T13:10Z CoinGecko, Alternative.me, DefiLlama and mempool.space answered; Nov 7 DefiLlama points are partial days, so Nov 6 closes are used for comparisons
What moved · why it matters · what to watch next — source-graded per INTEL_STANDARDS
SIGNAL 01
Avalanche C-Chain TVL closed Nov 6 at $569.79M (−4.90%), its lowest close since Nov 1, as chain stablecoins slipped to $1.2258B and DEX volume fell 48.24% in a week
Moved
DefiLlama closed Avalanche TVL for Nov 6 at $569.79M, down 4.90% from the $599.16M Nov 5 close and the first close under $570M since the $531.40M of Nov 1. Chain stablecoins closed at $1.2258B (−2.49% vs $1.2571B, and −8.8% from $1.3447B on Nov 4); Avalanche DEX volume is $67.43M (−13.98% 1d, −48.24% 7d) and AVAX is $8.24 (−1.22%, CoinGecko 13:10Z Nov 7). All-chain DeFi TVL closed Nov 6 at $80.84B (−4.95% vs $85.05B). The Nov 7 points ($612.96M TVL, $1.3116B stablecoins) are partial days and sit above the closes; we do not read them as a recovery.
Matters
Chain stablecoin supply fell $31.3M, about the same size as the $29.4M TVL drop, and AVAX slipped on the day, so the loss lines up with dollar liquidity leaving the chain rather than price alone, leaving a thinner base for lending and DEX liquidity. That reading is our inference from the DefiLlama series, not a DefiLlama finding. Weekly DEX volume at half its prior-week level is the clearest sign users are not trading on the chain, whatever the TVL does.
Next
DefiLlama’s Nov 7 daily close (posts Nov 8): a TVL close back above $599.16M would erase the Nov 6 drop and show the partial print was real; under $569.79M makes a second lower close. Chain stablecoins closing under $1.20B extends the outflow; back above $1.30B (the partial read is $1.3116B) would show the Nov 6 low was transitory.
✓ Verifieddefiavalanchestablecoins
SIGNAL 02
A hot payrolls print (+165,000 vs about 65,000 expected) lifted Fed hike odds toward 77–78% while spot BTC ETFs lost another $411.9M, leaving bitcoin 0.5% above Strategy’s $75,451 cost
Moved
October payrolls rose 165,000 against about 65,000 expected, unemployment held at 4.1% and August/September were revised up a combined 84,000 (BLS release). December Fed hike odds rose to about 77–78% from 70% (Yahoo Finance, Capp Notes; one source put them at 88% on an internally inconsistent page). US spot BTC ETFs lost $411.9M on Nov 6 (Farside and SoSoValue agree; IBIT −$403M, FBTC +$42.8M), about −$842M over two sessions after −$430.2M on Nov 5, and ETH ETFs lost $93.3M (Farside only). The S&P 500 still closed +0.31% and the Nasdaq +1.09%. BTC is $75,825 (CoinGecko 13:10Z Nov 7) and Fear and Greed reads 25. Hike odds are third-party readings of CME FedWatch and vary by outlet.
Matters
Equities bounced while ETF holders kept selling, so the bid for bitcoin is now weaker than the bid for stocks, and a strong labor print raises the rate path that spot BTC has been trading against. BTC sits only 0.5% above Strategy’s $75,451 average cost (849,327 BTC, single-source, Nov 2 disclosure), the level where the largest corporate holder turns underwater.
Next
Tue Nov 10, 8:30 ET: October CPI. A BTC daily close under $75,451 (Strategy’s cost) or a third straight ETF outflow on the Nov 9 print (posts after the US close) extends the leg down; a close back above $80,000 would reverse it.
✓ Verifiedmarketsetfmacro
SIGNAL 03
Elliptic still sees $3.13B of the $6.43B Binance theft in linked addresses as $175M has been converted to BTC, and DeFi lending outflows stayed near 3% of TVL
Moved
Elliptic’s live tracker (Nov 7 08:00Z) shows $3.13B still in theft-linked addresses, $2.85B frozen and about 2,300 BTC ($175M) converted from other stolen assets across 20,000+ wallets and 16 chains, up from 1,650 BTC ($124M) on Nov 6 per The Block. TRM puts the theft at about $6.36B with about $2.7B frozen, and Tether and Circle have frozen roughly $2.67B of stablecoins (TRM via Seoul Economic Daily, single-source). Sentora data (crypto.news, single-source) shows DeFi lending lost $1.59B (about 3% of lending TVL) in one day, about 60% back within three days, versus $10.9B (21%) over five days after the $292M Kelp exploit. Totals differ by tracker and date: Elliptic $6.43B, TRM $6.36B, Binance about $6.3B, BitOK $6.41B.
Matters
Stablecoin freezes cover well under half of the theft, so the laundering path runs through BTC conversion and privacy pools; Privacy Cash paused deposits after about $6.7M of proceeds arrived (Elliptic). A much smaller DeFi run than after Kelp, despite a loss 20 times larger, suggests lending markets are pricing exchange-side thefts as isolated from protocol solvency.
Next
Elliptic’s tracker, re-read Sat Nov 8 08:00Z: BTC converted above 2,300 BTC with the $3.13B linked-address balance falling means laundering is accelerating; both figures flat means the funds are parked. Binance’s ArbitrumDAO request for 8,425.997 ETH and 74.56M ARB is expected to take seven weeks or more (The Defiant), so no vote result is due before late December.
✓ Verifiedsecurityhacksstablecoins
📐 MethodologyHow these signals are graded. Signal 01 is VERIFIED on live DefiLlama API pulls at 13:10Z Nov 7; the Nov 7 points are partial days and are shown but not used for comparisons, and the link between TVL, stablecoin supply and DEX volume is our inference. Signal 02 is VERIFIED: the BLS release, Farside and SoSoValue agree on the Nov 6 BTC ETF flow and several outlets carry the index closes; the December hike odds differ by outlet (77–78% vs 88%) and are shown as a range, the ETH ETF figure is Farside only, and the Strategy cost basis is single-source. Signal 03 is VERIFIED because Elliptic’s tracker is a primary analytics source corroborated by The Block and TRM-based reporting; the Sentora lending-outflow comparison and the stablecoin freeze total are single-source and marked so, and Elliptic’s BTC-conversion figure moved between its Nov 6 and Nov 7 readings. No signal rests on a RUMOR / WATCH item.
Breaking — November 7, 2026
Avalanche TVL closed Nov 6 at $569.79M (−4.90%), chain stablecoins $1.2258B and DEX volume $67.43M (−48.24% 7d) (see Signal 01 and DeFi).
October payrolls +165,000 vs about 65,000 expected; spot BTC ETFs shed $411.9M on Nov 6, BTC $75,825, Fear & Greed 25 (see Signal 02 and Crypto & US Stocks).
Elliptic: $3.13B of the Binance theft still in linked addresses, $175M converted to BTC; Sentora sees a smaller lending run than after Kelp (see Signal 03 and Privacy & Security).
IREN Q3 mining revenue fell 58% to $28M as it targets a full AI transition by Dec 31; Riot sold 10,599 BTC in Q3 (see Mining).
Circle Q3: $865M revenue, USDC flat at $73.9B; BPI finds only 2 of the 10 largest stablecoins meet GENIUS reserve rules (see Stablecoins & RWA).
Finney stays on runtime 488 (no newer tag than v488); SN8 Vanta alpha burn and SN99 re-registration are aggregator-only (see Bittensor / TAO).
−0.20% vs $293.86B 24h ago · USDT $176.78B · USDC $70.68B · DefiLlama sum · 📐 see note
BTC Hashrate
1,012 EH/s
mempool.space current-hashrate field (±10%) · 📐 see note
BTC Difficulty
148.36T
+5.54% at the Oct 29 retarget · mempool.space
Next Retarget (est)
−4.02%
mempool.space · block 975,744, 808 blocks left, about Nov 13 · 📐 estimate
FOMC (Oct 28)
Hold 3.75–4.00%
10–2 vote, two dissents for a hike · federalreserve.gov · not re-pulled today
📐 MethodologyItems to carry before reading on. CoinGecko’s /global field reads total cap −2.85% in 24h while BTC is −0.01% and ETH +0.14%; the aggregate move does not fit the majors and probably reflects the 24h comparison base (the Nov 5 sell-off), so treat it as unreliable. Avalanche TVL: DefiLlama’s historicalChainTvl Nov 6 daily close is $569.79M (−4.90% vs the Nov 5 close of $599.16M); the Nov 7 point ($612.96M) is a partial day that sits above both closes and is likely to be revised. The all-chain Nov 6 close is $80.84B (Nov 7 partial $81.04B). Avalanche stablecoins closed Nov 6 at $1.2258B (Nov 7 partial $1.3116B). AVAX price: CoinGecko $8.24; stories quote $8.45–8.67 for earlier dates. Avalanche DEX volume is DefiLlama’s rolling 24h figure and moves with pull time. Stablecoin supply: $293.27B is our sum of DefiLlama’s USD-pegged circulating supply at 13:10Z Nov 7, against $294.54B in yesterday’s brief on the same method; the RWA analyst’s stories cite USDT at $186.1B (BPI, Jun 30), $183.5B (Tether liabilities, Sep 30) and $177.26B (DefiLlama via TokenPost), a basis gap we show rather than reconcile. Hashrate is derived from block timing and is always ±10%: mempool.space’s current field reads 1,012 EH/s and its daily points read 1,077 (Nov 5), 955 (Nov 6) and 1,001 (Nov 7, partial) EH/s; Hashrate Index’s 7d average is 1,062 EH/s and Pickaxe about 1,034. The retarget: mempool.space estimates −4.02% for about Nov 13 (Hashrate Index −2.8%, Pickaxe −2.6 to −3.2%); all move with block timing. The realized Oct 29 adjustment was +5.54%. TAO: $224.51 from our 13:10Z CoinGecko pull. Prices quoted inside stories are earlier readings than our live pull. ETF flows, index closes, payrolls and the Fed odds are as reported by the cited outlets or the BLS, not our own pulls.
How to read the badges.✓ Verified two or more independent outlets, or a primary source (filing, wire release, official API).
◆ Single-source one credible outlet, not independently corroborated — directionally useful, not load-bearing.
⚠ Rumor / Watch unconfirmed, aggregator-only, or self-reported with no third-party check; never used as a Signal.
📐 Methodology attached wherever trackers disagree or bases differ.
A mirror or syndication of the same copy does not count as a second source, and a page seen only as a search snippet is downgraded one tier. Research coverage was thin in several topics on Oct 21–22 (the stablecoin and DeFi cards carry fewer than six stories); empty slots are noted rather than backfilled, and cards dated before Oct 15 are labelled as background. Full rules in INTEL_STANDARDS.md.
DeFi
Privacy & Security
Mining
Liquidity & Airdrops
Stablecoins & RWA
Crypto & US Stocks
VC & Capital
Bittensor / TAO
DeFi
DeFiLlama TVL/stablecoin/DEX data as of Nov 7 13:10Z; stories from The Block, The Defiant, crypto.news, TokenPost, Nov 2-6; 5 single-source, 1 downgraded for date; thin 24h window.
Avalanche C-Chain TVL
$569.79M
-4.90% vs Nov 5 close · DefiLlama
Avalanche stablecoins
$1.2258B
-2.49% vs Nov 5 close ($1.2571B) · DefiLlama
Avalanche DEX volume 24h
$67.43M
-13.98% 1d, -48.24% 7d · DefiLlama
All-chain DeFi TVL
$80.84B
-4.95% vs Nov 5 close ($85.05B) · DefiLlama
Most Recent (through Nov 7)
Binance hack drove $1.59B of DeFi lending outflows in one day, versus $10.9B over five days after Kelp
Net outflows from lending markets were $1.59B (about 3% of lending TVL) in one day after the $6.36B Binance theft, and about 60% returned within three days; Kelp's $292M exploit in April saw $10.9B (about 21%) leave over five days with none returned. Why it matters: A smaller and faster-reversing run on a theft 20 times larger suggests lending markets priced the Binance loss as off-chain custody risk rather than protocol risk, which lowers the odds of a second leg down in TVL. «The two events use different windows (1 day vs 5 days) and the figures come from Sentora data relayed by one outlet; we did not open the Sentora source.»
Binance asks ArbitrumDAO to release 8,425.997 ETH and 74.56M ARB frozen after the hack
◆ Single-source The Defiant; Coinspectator; crypto.news · Nov 5, 2026 · source
Binance filed a draft asking ArbitrumDAO to return 8,425.997 ETH and 74,559,805 ARB via a Constitutional AIP, and expects the process to take seven weeks or longer. Why it matters: A seven-week governance path for about 0.4% of the stolen sum sets the precedent for how fast DAO-held freezes can reach a victim, and token holders get to price in legal conditions before releasing. «Dated Nov 5, outside the 24h window by hours (placed here because the crypto.news follow-up ran Nov 6); downgraded one tier for date; draft only, no vote scheduled. The Defiant page loaded only partially.»
Hypercall to launch first Anthropic-linked pre-IPO options market on Hyperliquid
Cash-settled synthetic Anthropic options start trading Monday Nov 9 for non-US users, from a venue that reported $536M options notional volume in September. Why it matters: Pre-IPO derivatives on Hyperliquid let traders express IPO-timing views while Polymarket odds of a November listing fell from about 88% to as low as 51%, so the contracts will price the delay directly. «Single outlet; the $536M volume is Hypercall-reported and contracts carry no share ownership.»
Also in the Last Seven Days (Oct 31–Nov 7)
Aave V4 deposits on Avalanche surpass $125 million
Aave V4 on Avalanche holds more than $125M of deposits, up from roughly $20-30M in September, after launching July 15. Why it matters: At $125M, V4 is about a fifth of the $569.79M DefiLlama Avalanche TVL (Nov 6 close), so Avalanche TVL now leans on one lending venue that was frozen during the Binance incident. «Single outlet; deposit figure not cross-checked against DefiLlama, and TokenPost's older-version inflow figure is historical, not current.»
NEAR governance approves proposal to cut token issuance ceiling to 1.6%
HSP-029 lowers NEAR's maximum annual issuance from 2.5% to 1.6% over 24 months, about 3.75 basis points per month. Why it matters: Lower issuance cuts validator and staker rewards over time, so a fee-funded security budget has to replace inflation as that ceiling falls. «Vote tally not published; change still needs Security Council review, a 90-day grace period and a validator upgrade.»
Mercado Bitcoin, Brazil's largest crypto exchange, hit by $46 million security breach
About $46.3M left Mercado Bitcoin per Arkham data, and Tether froze more than 4.5M USDT linked to the incident. Why it matters: A 4.5M USDT freeze recovers under 10% of the loss, so stablecoin issuer freezes are working as a partial brake while the rest is sold into altcoin liquidity. «Loss amount is Arkham-sourced; the exchange says customers were not affected.»
Key Trends
Custody risk is repricing faster than protocol risk — Lending outflows were 3% of TVL in one day after the Binance theft against 21% over five days after Kelp, and Avalanche stablecoin supply moved only -2.49% from Nov 5 to Nov 6 close.
Frozen-fund recovery runs through governance — Binance's Arbitrum request (seven weeks or longer) and Tether's 4.5M USDT freeze show recovery depends on DAO votes and issuer discretion.
Avalanche TVL is concentrated and falling with price — Avalanche TVL fell 4.90% in a day to $569.79M, while Aave V4 alone holds over $125M and DEX volume is down 48.24% over seven days.
Ones to Watch
Binance AIP on Arbitrum — A formal Constitutional AIP for the 8,425.997 ETH and 74.56M ARB posted to the Arbitrum forum or Tally by Nov 21 would confirm the seven-week clock has started.
Hypercall Anthropic options debut — Trading is set to start Mon Nov 9; first-week notional above or below the $536M September monthly options volume will show whether pre-IPO derivatives draw demand.
📐 Methodology Avalanche TVL: DefiLlama Nov 6 close $569.79M; Nov 7 partial $612.96M is a partial day and unreliable. Aave V4 on Avalanche deposits (>$125M, TokenPost) is a separate project-level figure and not a DefiLlama number.
📐 Methodology AVAX price: 247wallst (Nov 3) quoted $8.53 and Coinranking $8.45-8.67 vs live $8.24; different timestamps.
📐 Methodology A Phemex item says an Aave V4 Babylon native-BTC vote began Nov 6; Aave's own forum shows only Temp Check (May 25) and ARFC activity through Nov 5, with no Snapshot confirmation, so it was dropped.
📐 Methodology Search results returned a Sentora liquidity-crunch article dated Nov 2025 (a prior year); it was excluded.
Privacy & Security
Binance-theft laundering and DeFi fallout lead; Elliptic and crypto.news pages opened, Bloomberg and Japan Times (Chainalysis) pages could not be opened and are excluded.
Zcash (ZEC)
$1,277.99
-2.54% 24h · CoinGecko
Monero (XMR)
$612.71
-1.40% 24h · ZEC/XMR 2.09x · CoinGecko
Binance theft still in linked addresses
$3.13B
of $6.43B; $2.85B frozen · Elliptic, Nov 7 08:00Z
Stolen assets converted to BTC
$175M
~2,300 BTC; $124M on Nov 6 · Elliptic
Most Recent (through Nov 7)
How North Korea is laundering the $6.4 billion stolen from Binance (Elliptic live tracker)
✓ Verified Elliptic; The Block · Nov 7, 2026 · source
Elliptic says about 2,300 BTC ($175M) has been converted from other stolen assets (1,650 BTC, $124M, on Nov 6 per The Block), across 20,000+ wallets, 16 chains and 65,000+ transactions, with $3.13B still in theft-linked addresses and a negligible amount cashed out. Why it matters: Conversion into BTC ahead of OTC cash-out means the original 18,270 BTC sitting untouched in 19 addresses is the next falsifiable signal, and exchanges' address screening matters more than further freezes. «Live page updated Nov 7 08:00Z and the figure moved from $124M to $175M in a day; The Block's separate $470M 'unaccounted' amount may reflect price changes, cash-outs or both.»
Binance hack causes smaller DeFi run than $292M Kelp exploit
Sentora data shows lending protocols lost $1.59B (about 3% of TVL) in one day after the Binance theft, about 60% returned within three days and no bad debt was found, versus $10.9B (21%) over five days after the $292M Kelp DAO exploit in April. Why it matters: DeFi stress tracked the exploit's on-chain contagion (Kelp) rather than the headline size ($6.36B), so CeFi custody failures may now be priced as less systemic for lending markets. «Single outlet citing one data provider; windows differ (1 day vs 5 days), which the article notes.»
Gnosis Pay discloses data breach in legacy card system before December closure
◆ Single-source crypto.news · Nov 6, 2026 · source
Gnosis Pay says unauthorized access was detected Nov 3 and contained within about 2 hours, funds were unaffected, and branded cards stop authorizing at 23:59 UTC on Dec 20 (announced Sep 21, before the breach). Why it matters: Customer-data exposure in a card stack that is already being shut down shifts the risk from fund loss to phishing and KYC-data misuse, with a June $1.5M exploit still unresolved in users' minds. «Company-reported; no customer count or data categories disclosed, and it has not said the June and November incidents share a cause.»
Also in the Last Seven Days (Oct 31–Nov 7)
Bitcoin Foundation: North Korean hackers stole $7.61 billion in crypto in 2026 without breaking code (BitOK data)
⚠ Rumor / Watch Bitcoin Foundation (citing BitOK) · Nov 6, 2026 · source
BitOK estimates $7.61B stolen across 38 incidents in Jan-Oct 2026, with $2.86B frozen or seized (43% for Binance vs 6% for other major attacks) and the first Tether freeze request coming 34 minutes after the Binance withdrawal. Why it matters: A 34-minute freeze lag against a 20-minute theft window implies issuer response time, not detection, is the binding constraint on recovery. «Single vendor via a secondary outlet; the article's category figures ($6.41B Binance + $178.4M other) exceed its $7.61B total, so treat numbers with care.»
A privacy pool on Solana and Ethereum paused deposits after about $6.7M of Binance-theft proceeds entered
✓ Verified Elliptic; crypto.news · Nov 4, 2026 · source
Elliptic says Privacy Cash (Tornado Cash-style, launched Aug 2025) took about $6.7M of theft-linked ETH and SOL and paused deposits for about a day from Nov 4 while keeping withdrawals open, and 88 BTC ($6.7M) went through Wasabi-style coinjoins. Why it matters: An admin-key pause shows these pools are not fully decentralized, which gives regulators a concrete lever and strengthens the compliance case for ZEC/XMR-style protocol-level privacy over mixer contracts. «Amounts are small against $6.43B; Elliptic does not mention ZEC or XMR in this analysis.»
Bitquery traces $4.06M of USDT stolen from 365 TRON addresses to suspected zero-click iOS exploits
Bitquery counts at least $4.06M in USDT losses across 365 TRON addresses and 43 collector wallets from Oct 5 to Nov 4, while Security Alliance logged six iOS wallet-compromise reports totaling about $127,000 from Oct 28 to Nov 3. Why it matters: If device-level exploit kits (Coruna, DarkSword) are draining self-custody wallets, seed-phrase hygiene advice is insufficient and the hardware-wallet signing path becomes the safer default. «Addresses are a money network, not confirmed victims; one operator is not proven and the exploits themselves are unidentified. Trust Wallet advisory dated Nov 6.»
Key Trends
Laundering is automated and BTC-bound — Elliptic sees XRP, SOL and ETH proceeds routed through THORChain and bridges into BTC, with $175M converted and a negligible amount cashed out so far.
Contagion tracks DeFi linkage, not theft size — Sentora measured a 3% lending-TVL outflow after a $6.36B CeFi theft versus 21% after the $292M Kelp exploit.
Small-pool privacy tooling gets pulled in — A Solana/Ethereum privacy pool paused deposits after $6.7M of theft proceeds arrived, a pattern that invites mixer-style enforcement rather than ZEC/XMR scrutiny.
Ones to Watch
Movement of the 18,270 BTC — Elliptic reports the original BTC untouched in 19 addresses on Nov 6-7; a transfer to a service or mixer before Nov 14 would be the first sign of main-stash laundering.
Arbitrum DAO vote on Binance's 8,425.997 ETH and 74.6M ARB request — Binance filed the request on Nov 5 and expects about 49 days of governance, so a vote concluding before late December would be a precedent for freezes being released.
📐 Methodology Laundering totals disagree: Elliptic $124M BTC conversion (The Block, Nov 6) vs about $175M / 2,300 BTC (Elliptic page, Nov 7 08:00Z) - same tracker, different timestamps. Total stolen: Elliptic $6.43B, TRM $6.36B, Binance ~$6.3B, BitOK $6.41B; frozen: Elliptic $2.85B, TRM/BleepingComputer ~$2.7B, BitOK 2026-wide $2.86B.
📐 Methodology Bloomberg (Hackers Paid $15 to Drain $2.5B From Binance) blocked fetching and the Japan Times Chainalysis/China laundering page failed to load; both excluded. Prices in stats are from CoinGecko context; no story quoted a conflicting ZEC/XMR price.
📐 Methodology Searches for 24h protocol exploits and ZEC/XMR regulation news found nothing dated Nov 6-7 that could be opened (Dubai ban and EU 2027 plan results are older and were not verified).
Mining
mempool.space live pulls (Nov 7 ~13:10Z), Hashrate Index/Luxor, company releases and secondary outlets, window Oct 31-Nov 7; hashrate is an estimate (±10%) and trackers differ.
Hashrate (mempool.space)
1,011.8 EH/s
last three daily points ≈1,077 / 955 / 1,001; ±10%
Difficulty
148.36T
mempool.space · next retarget est. -4.02%, 808 blocks left (~Nov 13)
Hashprice (Hashrate Index/Luxor, Nov 2)
$32.86/PH/s/day
-8.7% w/w; 30d avg $37.49
BTC price
$75,825
vs ~$76.8k at Nov 2 Hashrate Index roundup
Most Recent (through Nov 7)
IREN's bitcoin mining revenue drops 58% as firm plans full exit by year-end
✓ Verified The Block; TheStreet (citing IREN 10-Q) · Nov 5, 2026 · source
IREN's Q3 mining revenue fell to $28M from $67M in Q2 and $233M a year earlier, with 402 BTC mined at an average 8.8 EH/s (45.3 EH/s a year earlier) and the filing targeting completion of the AI transition by Dec 31, 2026. Why it matters: Roughly 36 EH/s of self-mined capacity at one operator has already left versus last year, which tightens the pool of price-insensitive hashrate and leaves difficulty to be set by miners that cannot reprice into AI leases. «Dated Nov 5 (page updated Nov 6); the 24h window yielded few new mining stories, so this is filled from Nov 5. IREN shares fell 17% to $18.03 amid a broad AI sell-off, so the move is not mining-specific.»
BitFuFu Announces October 2026 Bitcoin Production and Operational Updates
BitFuFu produced 137 BTC in October (167 in September; 70 cloud, 67 self-mined), held 1,454 BTC (+4.8%), and managed 19.5 EH/s at 16.3 J/TH across 317 MW. Why it matters: A 18% month-on-month output drop at flat hashrate matches the 11.8% October difficulty rise the company cites, which shows the retarget, not shutdowns, absorbed October's gains. «Company-reported; not independently audited. Hashrate under management includes 15.8 EH/s from third-party suppliers and hosting customers.»
TeraWulf Q3: operating loss of $88.2M as HPC leases reach 83% of revenue
◆ Single-source The Crypto Basic (TCB Daily Edition) · Nov 6, 2026 · source
TeraWulf's mining revenue was $13.2M (-69% from $43.4M) against $63M of HPC lease revenue within $76.2M total, and the operating loss was $88.2M. Why it matters: An operating loss of this size with mining at 17% of sales means the lease build-out is being financed by capital markets rather than cash flow, so funding costs now matter more than hashprice for its equity. «New detail on a story covered Nov 6 (operating loss figure was garbled in the earlier source). Daily-roundup summary of the company release; primary release not opened.»
Also in the Last Seven Days (Oct 31–Nov 7)
Bitcoin Miner Riot Platforms Sells 10,599 BTC, Secures $28 Billion AI Data Center Deal
✓ Verified Coingape; Cointelegraph · Nov 4, 2026 · source
Riot sold 10,599 BTC in Q3, cutting holdings from 11,380 BTC in June to 2,418 BTC, to help fund a $5.5B Corsicana build for a 15-year, 910 MW, roughly $28B lease. Why it matters: Selling ~10.6k BTC (about $0.8B at $75.8k) over one quarter is a supply overhang that a retail-driven price drift cannot ignore, and Riot says it does not expect to issue equity, so the build is tied to debt it has not yet secured. «New angle on Riot's Q3 covered yesterday. Coingape's headline and body disagree on share-move percentages; financing for the $5.5B capex is not yet secured per Cointelegraph.»
Riot's $28B AI deal lifts shares as Hut 8 faces transition costs
◆ Single-source Cointelegraph · Nov 4, 2026 · source
Hut 8 fell more than 22% intraday after Q3 revenue of $71.1M (-15% y/y) missed the $75.8M estimate, while holding $7.5B of project bonds for two AI developments not yet producing lease revenue. Why it matters: Markets are separating miners with signed, producing tenants from those carrying construction-stage debt, which raises the cost of capital for the latter. «Adds the $7.5B bond and 22% intraday drop to yesterday's Hut 8 coverage; figures from one outlet.»
Hashrate Index Roundup (November 2, 2026)
◆ Single-source Hashrate Index (Luxor) · Nov 2, 2026 · source
Hashprice fell 8.7% to $32.86/PH/s/day, the 7d hashrate average eased from 1,091 to 1,062 EH/s, and 17 of 18 tracked mining stocks fell in the week with a median move of -11.0% (BTDR -15.1%). Why it matters: Equities fell faster than hashprice (-11% median versus -8.7%), meaning investors are discounting miners' AI pivot execution, not the mining margin alone. «Vendor-published (Luxor) data; Luxor also sells hashrate forwards, which price a $33.04 six-month average.»
Key Trends
Mining exits accelerate — IREN's average operating hashrate fell to 8.8 EH/s from 45.3 EH/s a year earlier and it targets finishing the transition by Dec 31, while Core Scientific booked $12.3M of self-mining revenue against $215.4M colocation.
Treasuries become funding sources — Riot sold 10,599 BTC in Q3 and Hut 8 sold 3,102 BTC, so listed miners are funding AI build-outs partly by selling coins rather than issuing equity.
Hashrate near 1 ZH/s but volatile — Our mempool.space points show ≈1,077, 955 and 1,001 EH/s over the last three daily points with a -4.02% retarget estimate, so network capacity is flat to slightly lower despite hashprice near $33.
Ones to Watch
Binance Pool shutdown, Nov 10 07:00 UTC — Binance said it will disable its Stratum endpoints then; an estimated 6-13 EH/s (0.7-1.4% of the network, Tech Times estimate) must re-point, and the Nov 13 retarget should show whether it moved to AntPool, Foundry or ViaBTC without going offline.
MARA Q3 results, Nov 9 (call 5:00 p.m. ET) — The shareholder letter will show whether MARA, last reported as the largest public holder at 35,577 BTC, has sold coins as Riot and Hut 8 did; a drop of more than 5,000 BTC would extend the treasury-sale trend.
📐 Methodology Hashrate (estimate, ±10%): mempool.space live 1,011.8 EH/s (last three daily points ≈1,077 / 955 / 1,001); Hashrate Index 7d SMA 1,062 EH/s (Nov 2); Pickaxe ~1,034 EH/s (Nov 3); MillionMiner 7d avg 1,069 EH/s (Nov 2). Differences reflect averaging windows and block-time estimation.
📐 Methodology Next retarget estimates disagree: our mempool.space pull -4.02%; Hashrate Index -2.8% (Nov 2); Pickaxe -2.63% to -3.22% (Nov 3); MillionMiner -1.7% to +4.3% (Nov 2, early). Estimates move with every block.
📐 Methodology Pool shares disagree: Tech Times (Oct 14) gives Foundry ~28-30%, AntPool ~18-22%, ViaBTC ~13%; Pickaxe (Nov 3, recent block share) gives AntPool ~23.6%, Foundry ~21.5%, F2Pool ~18.75%, ViaBTC ~9.7%. Pool shares are inferred from coinbase tags and vary by window.
📐 Methodology BTC price: our pull $75,825; The Block cited ~$76,150 (Nov 6) and Hashrate Index ~$76,752 (Nov 2). Hashprice $32.86 is Luxor's Nov 2 value and predates the latest BTC dip. The 24h window held few mining stories, so one card is dated Nov 5.
Liquidity & Airdrops
Nov 7: Binance Alpha $350k snapshot, PREDICT batch rules, Nov unlock calendar (CryptoRank vs cryptonews.net), Aster Stage 6 and Doppler claims; mostly secondary outlets, 24h window thin.
Nov 2-8 unlocks (CryptoRank via TokenPost)
$536.57M
cryptonews.net 12-token table sums ~$275M
Six largest Nov unlocks (CryptoRank via CoinEdition)
$761.84M
Monad 16.61B MON = $323.79M on Nov 24
Binance Alpha snapshot reward pool (Coingabbar)
$350,000
min 200 Alpha Points; per-user amount unannounced
PREDICT premarket (Coingabbar, Nov 6)
$10.0894
+4.6%; FDV $1.15B; no TGE date
Most Recent (through Nov 7)
Binance Alpha community airdrop: $350,000 pool, snapshot closed Nov 6 23:59 UTC at 200 Alpha Points
Binance Wallet announced on Nov 6 a $350,000 reward for accounts holding at least 200 Alpha Points at the Nov 6 23:59:59 UTC snapshot, with no points deducted and automatic distribution. Why it matters: A 200-point threshold on a $350,000 pool sets per-user payouts by how many accounts clear the bar, so the result is a farming-participation count as much as a reward. «One secondary outlet relaying a Binance Wallet post on X that was not opened; per-user amount and distribution date are not announced.»
PREDICT Nov 6 batch date passes with no TGE; unreleased batches roll into first post-listing batch
◆ Single-source TechFlow; Coingabbar · Nov 6, 2026 · source
Binance Wallet's updated rules keep five dates (listing day, Nov 6, 13, 20, 27) and merge any undistributed batches into the first batch after listing, with no resubmission and the claim form still closing Nov 26 09:00 UTC. Why it matters: If listing lands after Nov 27, all four weekly batches release in one distribution, concentrating Option A supply into a single day rather than spreading it over four weeks. «New development on yesterday's PREDICT story (TechFlow dated Nov 5, Coingabbar Nov 6); both relay the Binance Wallet notice, which was not opened, and neither confirms whether the Nov 6 batch paid out.»
Stable (STABLE) unlock Nov 8 and ADI Chain unlock Nov 9 are the next scheduled releases
STABLE releases $23.28M (4.94% of $471.60M market value) on Nov 8 at 03:00 UTC+3, and CryptoRank lists ADI Chain at $56.18M (7.18%) on Nov 9. Why it matters: ADI at 7.18% of market value is larger relative to float than the Nov 8 release, so Nov 9 is the first unlock this week above the 5% dilution mark after KITE. «Window fill: fewer than three qualifying stories in the 24h window; both sources are dated Nov 2 (outside the window), and each token appears in one tracker only, so tier is downgraded. Not primary-source data.»
Also in the Last Seven Days (Oct 31–Nov 7)
Monad leads November unlocks: 16.61B MON ($323.79M) on Nov 24; six unlocks total $761.84M
◆ Single-source CoinEdition (CryptoRank) · Nov 2, 2026 · source
CryptoRank lists Monad at 16.61B MON ($323.79M) on Nov 24, with Pieverse $90.17M (31.44% of market cap) on Nov 14 and LayerZero $47.80M (6.43%) on Nov 20. Why it matters: Pieverse at 31.44% of market cap on Nov 14 is a larger relative dilution than Monad's headline dollar figure, and it arrives 10 days earlier. «CoinEdition and cryptonews.net carry the same CryptoRank figures (a mirror), so one source; the CryptoRank page itself failed to open. Unlock sizes are schedule maximums, not realized sales.»
Aster Stage 6 fully vested claims run to Nov 28, but outlets disagree on pool size and dates
KuCoin (Oct 26) and CryptoTicker (Nov 2) cite 200M ASTER with claims Oct 28 to Nov 28 12:00 UTC, while Bittime (Nov 3) lists 64M ASTER (0.8% of supply) with claims Nov 4 to Dec 4. Why it matters: A 3x spread in the stated pool means claimants cannot size the overhang, and a Nov 28 versus Dec 4 close shifts when unclaimed tokens could be reallocated. «Roundups only; the Aster project page was not opened. KuCoin says the project page gives Oct 28, and states round-ups citing Nov 4 are mistaken.»
Doppler Finance XDP Genesis Airdrop: 100M XDP (1% of 10B supply) claimable to Nov 28 on Base
◆ Single-source CryptoTicker; Bittime · Nov 2, 2026 · source
Doppler Finance's 100M XDP (1% of 10B supply) claim runs Sep 28 to Nov 28 12:00 UTC, restricted to the Base wallet used for registration, which closed Jul 30. Why it matters: Registration shut four months before claims end, so unclaimed XDP after Nov 28 is a fixed, knowable amount that the project can retain or redirect. «Both are airdrop roundups; Bittime (Nov 3) gives the same pool and Nov 28 close. Doppler's own page was not opened.»
Key Trends
Unlock calendars diverge by tracker — Nov 2-8 unlocks total $536.57M (CryptoRank) or ~$275M (a 12-token table at cryptonews.net), so dollar headlines depend on which tokens a tracker includes.
Claim windows cluster on Nov 26-28 — PREDICT's form closes Nov 26, Aster Stage 6 and Doppler XDP claims both close Nov 28, concentrating claim-or-forfeit decisions in a three-day span.
Exchange-run programs set the timing — Binance Wallet's Alpha snapshot and PREDICT batch rules, not the issuing projects, determine when users receive tokens.
Ones to Watch
PREDICT listing or new TGE date — Binance or predict.fun posts a listing/claim date before the Nov 26 09:00 UTC form close, or the Nov 13 batch is consolidated again.
Binance Alpha $350k distribution — Per-user amount and distribution date appear on Binance Wallet channels by Nov 14; if absent, the Coingabbar report stays single-source.
📐 Methodology Weekly unlocks: CryptoRank/TokenPost $536.57M (Nov 2-8) vs cryptonews.net 12-token table ~$275M (Nov 2-8, UTC+3 times) vs yesterday's KuCoin >$879.9M headline (Nov 1-7). KITE: $131.74M-$131.88M (CryptoRank) vs $96.56M (cryptonews.net table); BTW $112.07M-$112.16M vs $101.18M-$109.66M elsewhere.
📐 Methodology Aster Stage 6: 200M ASTER, Oct 28-Nov 28 (KuCoin Oct 26, CryptoTicker Nov 2) vs 64M ASTER, Nov 4-Dec 4 (Bittime Nov 3). One OneBullEx page for the same event carries 2025 dates and is ignored.
📐 Methodology Only 2 of 3 24h items fall in the window; the third is a Nov 2 scheduled-event fill. No in-window primary sources (project blogs, forums) were opened.
Stablecoins & RWA
Stablecoins & RWA · BPI/Circle/Tether primary disclosures plus Block, Decrypt, Cointelegraph, Seoul Economic Daily · window Oct 31–Nov 7, 2026
2 of 10 (USDC, PYUSD); 72% of supply falls short; data as of Jun 30
Stablecoins frozen after Binance hack (TRM via Seoul Economic Daily)
$2.67B
of ~$6.36B stolen (~42%); Tether and Circle
USDC circulation, Q3 end (Circle)
$73.9B
flat YoY; avg $73.3B +8% YoY; issuer-reported
Tether excess reserves, Sep 30 (BDO attestation)
$7.95B
from $4.1B at Jun 30; total reserves $191.5B vs $183.5B liabilities
Most Recent (through Nov 7)
Not All Stablecoins Will Follow GENIUS Reserve Asset Requirements
✓ Verified Bank Policy Institute (primary); PYMNTS · Nov 6, 2026 · source
BPI finds only 2 of the 10 largest dollar stablecoins (USDC $73.7B, PYUSD $2.7B; 26% of supply) meet GENIUS Act reserve rules, while USDT ($186.1B) and other offshore or crypto-backed coins (72% of supply) fall outside or short. Why it matters: A bank lobby is framing compliant-versus-non-compliant reserves ahead of the Jan 18, 2027 effective date, which pressures USD1 and Ripple USD to restructure money-market-fund backing to stay onshore. «Authored by a bank trade group with a stated position on stablecoins; reserve data is as of Jun 30, 2026 and Ripple USD status is an assumption.»
Binance Hack Puts Stablecoin Issuers' Freeze Powers in Spotlight
◆ Single-source Seoul Economic Daily (TRM Labs figures); Troutman Pepper Locke newsletter (Nov 6) · Nov 7, 2026 · source
Tether and Circle froze about $2.67B of stablecoins tied to the roughly $6.36B Binance theft (about 42% recovered or frozen per TRM), while two lawsuits against Tether over frozen USDT ($2.76M and $42.42M) are pending. Why it matters: The GENIUS Act requires freeze-and-burn only on lawful, specific orders, so issuer discretion shown in this episode becomes a litigation and compliance question once the Act takes effect. «Both outlets rely on TRM Labs; the attacker reportedly still controls about $2.4B; early Oct 29 reports of $2B+ were unverified.»
Samsung Weighs Stablecoin Checkout for Online and Physical Stores
Samsung is evaluating USDC checkout for online and in-store purchases with no launch date, after its Solana-USDC account went live Nov 5 for eligible US Galaxy users across about 82M compatible devices. Why it matters: Moving from transfers to checkout is the step that would turn a held balance into spending volume, which is where payments use has lagged (0.7% of stablecoin activity per the Kansas City Fed cited by CoinGeek). «Evaluation only, no commitment or date; 82M is a device count, not accounts; New York excluded.»
Also in the Last Seven Days (Oct 31–Nov 7)
Circle reports $865 million in Q3 revenue and reserve income, discloses 5% workforce reduction
✓ Verified Circle Q3 release (via Finviz); The Block · Nov 4, 2026 · source
Q3 revenue and reserve income was $865M (+17% YoY) with net income of $226M, but USDC at quarter-end was $73.9B (flat YoY) and reserve income fell 8% to $658M as the reserve return rate dropped 61 bps. Why it matters: Revenue growth came from a $182M ARC token presale rather than float, so lower rates with flat supply are squeezing core economics and explain the 5% headcount cut. «Issuer-reported figures; $182M of other revenue is a one-off token presale.»
Morgan Stanley among first banks to tokenize US equities, Treasurys through DTCC's service
✓ Verified The Block; Decrypt · Nov 4, 2026 · source
Morgan Stanley said it tokenized US equities and Treasurys on DTCC's service (live Oct 28, 20 participants, $114T in DTC custody), and now expects tokenized equities on its ATS in Q1 2027 versus an earlier H2 2026 target. Why it matters: Tokenization is arriving as digital twins of DTC-held securities rather than crypto-native tokens, which favors incumbent custodians and slips bank trading timelines into 2027. «No volumes disclosed; service runs on Canton and a private Besu network only.»
Tether reports $1.5B Q3 profit as excess reserves nearly double to $8B
Tether posted $1.5B Q3 operating profit ($4.5B nine-month), excess reserves of $7.95B (from $4.1B) and $132.4B of direct and indirect Treasury exposure against $183.5B of liabilities. Why it matters: Bitcoin holdings rose to $8.37B from about $5.8B, so the larger buffer rests partly on volatile assets and sits against BPI's Nov 6 view that USDT is outside GENIUS compliance. «Published Oct 30, one day before the window opens, so tier is downgraded one step; BDO attestation is point-in-time, not an audit; supply figures differ ($184B Bitcoin.com vs ~$178B implied).»
Key Trends
Reserve quality is becoming the dividing line — BPI's 26% compliant share, USDC's flat $73.9B supply and Tether's $7.95B buffer partly built on BTC show the debate shifting from size to what backs each coin before Jan 18, 2027.
Freeze powers are now a systemic feature — Issuers froze about $2.67B tied to the Binance theft within days, and litigation over earlier freezes is growing as GENIUS codifies lawful-order freeze-and-burn.
Wall Street tokenization runs through incumbents — DTCC's service (20 participants) and Morgan Stanley's use of it put tokenized stocks and Treasurys on regulated rails, with bank trading venues slipping to Q1 2027.
Ones to Watch
Nov 23: OCC comment deadline on GENIUS application and reporting forms — Troutman reports comments are due Nov 23, and Fed and Treasury proposal comments follow around Nov 30 (Willkie); watch whether yield-sharing and reserve-composition objections like BPI's appear.
Q1 2027: Morgan Stanley tokenized equities on its ATS — The bank pushed this from H2 2026; a further slip past Mar 31, 2027 would signal DTCC onboarding is slower than the 20-participant launch implied.
📐 Methodology USDT basis differs by source: BPI exhibit $186.1B (data as of Jun 30), Tether attestation $183.5B liabilities and Bitcoin.com ~$184B (Sep 30), DefiLlama via TokenPost $177.26B (Nov 6, per prior brief). USDC: BPI $73.7B vs Circle $73.9B (Sep 30). Definitions and dates differ; none contradicts our Avalanche pulls (Nov 5 $1.2571B, Nov 6 $1.2258B, Nov 7 partial $1.3116B), which no cited story quotes.
📐 Methodology Binance hack size: TRM-based reports cite about $6.3-6.36B stolen and $2.67B frozen; Yahoo Finance's Oct 29 early report said the amount was unverified and cited ~$1.8B in pending freezes. Use the later TRM figures.
📐 Methodology The 24h window held only two items clearly dated Nov 6-7 (BPI, Binance freezes); the Samsung item is a Nov 6 development on the account launched Nov 5. Ondo's '$4B' claim was dropped: CoinPaprika dates it Nov 5 but the same milestone was reported Oct 14 and June 15, so the date could not be pinned. Tether Q3 (Oct 30) is outside the 7d window by one day and is flagged.
Crypto & US Stocks
Nov 7, 13:15 UTC: October payrolls +165k (BLS), Nov 6 index closes and spot BTC/ETH ETF flows (Farside and SoSoValue agree on BTC); stories dated Nov 6 to Nov 7 with prior 7 days.
Farside and SoSoValue agree; IBIT -$403M, FBTC +$42.8M; ETH ETFs -$93.3M (Farside)
S&P 500 / Nasdaq Comp, Nov 6 close
+0.31% / +1.09%
7,376.86 / 24,579.42; Dow -0.46%; S&P about -2.7% for the week
Most Recent (through Nov 7)
US October payrolls rise 165,000 vs about 65,000 expected; unemployment 4.1%
✓ Verified BLS (primary); Yahoo Finance; Trading and Investment News · Nov 6, 2026 · source
Payrolls rose 165,000 with unemployment at 4.1% and August/September revised up a combined 84,000, and the odds of a December Fed hike rose to about 77-78% from 70%. Why it matters: A hot labor print against 3.1% wage growth keeps the Fed on a hiking path, so the 2-year yield (4.52%) and dollar, not crypto news, set BTC's near-term ceiling. «Hike odds differ by outlet: 77-78% (Yahoo, Trading and Investment News) vs 88% (Gokhshtein, 'Fed funds futures', page internally inconsistent). Consensus ranged 59k-70k by source. U-6 rose to 7.9% from 7.6% and real wages fell.»
US spot bitcoin ETFs lose $411.9M and ether ETFs $93.3M on Nov 6, led by IBIT
BTC ETFs shed $411.9M (IBIT -$403M, FBTC +$42.8M), the second straight outflow after -$430.2M on Nov 5, for about -$842M over two sessions; ETHA led ETH ETF outflows at -$90.8M. Why it matters: Outflows concentrated in IBIT while Fidelity took inflows points to one large holder or desk reducing exposure, so the ETF bid cannot yet be read as broad-based capitulation or recovery. «Farside and SoSoValue agree on the BTC total. ETH ETF figure of -$93.3M is Farside only; SoSoValue ETH not found. Two-day total is our arithmetic.»
S&P 500 +0.31% and Nasdaq +1.09% on Nov 6 as chips rebound; S&P ends week about 2.7% lower
The S&P closed at 7,376.86, Nasdaq at 24,579.42 and Dow at 51,285.73 (-0.46%), with AMD +11.04%, VIX -9% to 25.64 and the 10-year at 4.859%. Why it matters: Equities bounced despite a hawkish jobs print while BTC stayed flat near $76k, so crypto did not join the Nov 6 relief rally and still trades below its pre-selloff range. «Weekly S&P figure (-2.7%, worst since April 2025) is from Closing Look only. Asian chip markets fell hard (Kospi -6.02%, Nikkei -5.96%) per the same source. Breadth was negative at 182 advancers to 312 decliners.»
Also in the Last Seven Days (Oct 31–Nov 7)
Strategy funds a $208.2M STRC buyback and 811 BTC purchase with $164M of MSTR share sales
✓ Verified The Block; Cointelegraph (8-K filed Nov 2) · Nov 2, 2026 · source
Strategy sold 1,178,552 MSTR shares for about $164M, put $65.5M into 811 BTC at $80,846, kept $98.5M as cash, and now holds 849,327 BTC at a $75,451 average cost. Why it matters: Common-equity issuance is funding preferred buybacks and cash rather than mostly bitcoin, and with spot about 0.5% above cost basis the treasury bid weakens if MSTR trades closer to NAV. «Cost-basis comparison uses the 13:10Z CoinGecko price and is our arithmetic. Cointelegraph cites about $664M of STRC buybacks for Oct 1-25. Headline differs from yesterday's Strategy item: this adds the funding split.»
Circle Q3: $865M revenue includes $182M Arc token presale; reserve income falls 8% and 5% of staff cut
✓ Verified The Block; Decrypt; CoinDesk · Nov 4, 2026 · source
Reserve income fell 8% to $658M, USDC supply was flat at $73.9B year over year, and Circle booked $9.1M in restructuring costs for the 5% workforce reduction. Why it matters: With falling rates cutting reserve yield and USDC supply flat, stablecoin issuer earnings now depend on one-off token sales and cost cuts, which pressures the 'new growth' narrative for public crypto firms. «CoinDesk puts Circle shares down 11% over five days; The Block's ticker (-2.28%) is page-capture time, not earnings reaction. Circle's own release not opened.»
Kalshi traders price a November bitcoin low near $70,000, about 8% below the Nov 6 level
Prediction-market pricing implies a $70,000 November low versus BTC at $75,921 (CoinGecko), with analysts citing $75,580 as range floor and $81,238 as the recovery level. Why it matters: If prediction markets and ETF outflows both lean down, a close below $75,580 would likely trigger the $74.4k-$75k long-liquidation cluster noted by crypto.news. «Kalshi page itself not opened; the $70,000 figure is relayed by Blockonomi. Technical levels come from analyst commentary, not our data.»
Key Trends
Good data is bad news — A 165k payroll beat lifted December hike odds to about 77-78% and the 10-year to 4.86%, while S&P is down about 2.7% on the week; crypto traded flat through it.
ETF flows turned from support to drag — Two straight outflow sessions total about -$842M for BTC ETFs and -$93M for ETH ETFs on Nov 6 alone, led by IBIT.
Crypto equities show weak core trading — Circle's reserve income fell 8% and its 5% staff cut followed Coinbase's Q3 where transaction revenue was $590M, so earnings now lean on non-trading lines.
Ones to Watch
CPI release, Tue Nov 10, 8:30 ET — A hot print would raise December hike odds above 78%; a BTC close below $75,580 (range floor cited by analysts) would confirm downside risk.
Daily BTC ETF flows through Nov 10 — A third straight outflow would extend the streak beyond -$842M; one positive day above +$100M would break it.
📐 Methodology ETF flows: Farside (via Blockonomi, crypto.news) and SoSoValue (via Altcoin Buzz) both show BTC -$411.9M for Nov 6; no disagreement. ETH ETFs -$93.3M is Farside only. Farside and SoSoValue sites were not opened directly.
📐 Methodology Prices: our 13:10Z CoinGecko pulls (BTC $75,825, ETH $2,239) vs articles: $75,921 CoinGecko (Blockonomi, Nov 7), $76,070 at 09:31Z (crypto.news). CoinGecko /global total cap -2.85% conflicts with majors flat; treat total-cap change as unreliable.
📐 Methodology Fed hike odds: 77-78% (Yahoo, Capp Notes, Trading and Investment News) vs 88% (Gokhshtein, internally inconsistent page). Payrolls consensus 59k-70k depending on source.
📐 Methodology Coinbase Q3 transaction revenue is -23% YoY in CoinDesk but -44% YoY in crypto.news; not used in a card for that reason (earnings were Oct 29, outside window).
📐 Methodology Strategy's item is a development on yesterday's Nov 2 story (funding split added, now corroborated by The Block and Cointelegraph).
VC & Capital
Nov 6-7 window thin: 0 verified, 3 single in 24h; 7d = 1 verified, 1 single, 1 verified follow-up. Sources: The Block, crypto.news, tech.eu, Dealroom.
Week Oct 31-Nov 6 disclosed raises (crypto.news)
$43.5M
6 financings with disclosed amounts vs >=$1.24B in Oct 24-30 week
Strive Q3 net income (The Block)
$509M
Unrealized BTC gains $533.7M; revenue about $2.7M; 43,124 BTC held
StableStock valuation (Dealroom)
$75M
Strategic round Nov 2; amount raised undisclosed
BTC / Fear & Greed, Nov 7 13:10Z
$75,825 / 25
F&G 28 on Nov 6 vs 71 a month earlier (Alternative.me via CoinGabbar)
Most Recent (through Nov 7)
Aave Labs acquires Avon team and technology to add fixed-rate lending
Aave Labs bought Avon's fixed- and floating-rate lending protocols, onchain order book and domains, with three Avon staff joining; price undisclosed, while Aave cites more than $30B in deposits and over $12B in active loans. Why it matters: Buying a finished fixed-rate codebase rather than building it shortens Aave's route to term lending, and acqui-hires of small protocol teams are becoming the exit for sub-scale DeFi projects when VC rounds are scarce. «Terms undisclosed; Avon's funding history is not reported; other outlets (KuCoin, PANews, CryptoTimes) republish the same announcement, so this counts as one source.»
Crypto VC funding: Uranium Digital raises $16.5m, LO:TECH secures $12m
The Oct 31-Nov 6 roundup lists six disclosed financings totalling $43.5M, with five more undisclosed-amount deals including StableStock at a $75M valuation. Why it matters: A $43.5M week against more than $1.24B the week before shows the October total was driven by a few outsized rounds, so the base rate of disclosed deals is in the $0.5M-$16.5M range. «Tracker counts only deals with disclosed amounts and excludes token sales and treasury deals; several deal dates are unspecified in the article; coinspectator, bitbase and finwire copies are mirrors.»
Strive's bitcoin gains drive $509 million Q3 profit as BTC buying ramps up
Strive reported $509M Q3 net income on $533.7M of unrealized BTC gains, raised about $609M via SATS preferred in October, launched a $1B SATS sales program and holds 43,124 BTC (about $3.25B), 876 BTC short of Strategy. Why it matters: Preferred-stock issuance is now the main capital channel into BTC treasuries while venture rounds shrink, and with BTC down 6% on Nov 6 the profit is unrealized and will reverse in Q4 if prices stay near $75K. «SEC 8-K exists per search results but the filing page would not open; figures are as reported by The Block. Treasury-company capital raising, not venture funding.»
Also in the Last Seven Days (Oct 31–Nov 7)
London-based LO:TECH lands $12M Series A led by MMC
LO:TECH raised a $12M Series A led by MMC with Faction, 13books Capital and Atka, up from a $5M seed in August 2025, and reports triple-digit revenue growth over the past year. Why it matters: A UK generalist VC leading a 24/7 trading-infrastructure round, with New York and Singapore expansion and US licences in view, shows non-crypto funds backing prediction-market and tokenized-stock plumbing. «Revenue growth is quoted from the MMC partner; no revenue figure or valuation disclosed.»
StableStock raises strategic round at $75M valuation
The Singapore platform for trading US, Hong Kong and Korean stocks and ETFs with stablecoins took a strategic round from Amber, Nomad Capital, Flow Traders and Gate at a $75M valuation, amount undisclosed. Why it matters: Market makers (Flow Traders, Amber) and an exchange (Gate) investing together points to liquidity and distribution as the goal, a pattern that favours tokenized-equity venues over pure venture bets. «Raise amount not stated; Dealroom and Cryptorank are aggregators and crypto.news repeats the same data, no company statement opened.»
Payward-affiliated fund and clients buy AAVE token stake on secondary market, Aave says
✓ Verified The Block; Yahoo Finance (Payward release) · Nov 5, 2026 · source
Digital Asset Special Investments I, LP, a Payward affiliate, bought AAVE on the secondary market, with Aave founder Stani Kulechov and Payward's Gurpreet Oberoi both quoted and further purchases left open. Why it matters: Aave Labs buying Avon the next day while Kraken's parent accumulates the token suggests AAVE is being positioned as the exchange-owned lending franchise, though the amount is unknown. «Follow-up to yesterday's brief item; no amount, price or seller disclosed; the June equity-stake report (15% at $385M) was denied by Kulechov.»
Key Trends
Weekly deal flow is small and early-stage — Six disclosed deals totalled $43.5M, the largest being Uranium Digital's $16.5M, versus a $1B Kalshi round in the Oct 24-30 week.
Trading infrastructure attracts strategics — LO:TECH ($12M, MMC) and StableStock ($75M valuation, Flow Traders/Amber/Gate) are both tokenized or 24/7 market plumbing backed by market makers and non-crypto funds.
Exits and consolidation replace IPOs — Aave Labs' Avon purchase and Payward's AAVE buying are M&A and token deals, while Strive funds BTC buying through preferred stock, with BTC near $75.8K and Fear & Greed at 25.
Ones to Watch
Strive passing Strategy in BTC holdings — Strive stated it needs 876 BTC to pass Strategy; check its next 8-K or Strategy's Monday filing by Nov 16 to see whether it crosses.
Next crypto.news weekly VC roundup (about Nov 14) — If disclosed raises stay under the $43.5M of Oct 31-Nov 6, with BTC under $76K and Fear & Greed under 30, the post-October funding slowdown is continuing.
📐 Methodology Window is thin: nothing venture-type dated Nov 6-7 beyond Aave/Avon, Strive and the weekly roundup; the Payward/AAVE item repeats yesterday's story as a new-detail follow-up, and Nov 2 deals fill the 7d slots.
📐 Methodology Tracker basis: crypto.news' $43.5M counts disclosed-amount deals only; RootData's October $2.099B (cited yesterday) includes debt and non-native rounds like Kalshi, so the two are not comparable.
📐 Methodology Strive's $609M preferred raise and the Aave/Avon deal are treasury and M&A items that venture trackers such as RootData would not count as funding rounds.
Bittensor / TAO
Source: shizzyunchained.com daily index, Nov 6, 2026 edition (Nov 7 edition returned an error); aggregator treated as a lead list only, claims re-checked against GitHub API and Finney RPC.
TAO price (CoinGecko, 13:10 UTC)
$224.51
+0.86% 24h
Subnets with updates / roster
23 / 128
Nov 6 edition
Finney runtime spec_version
488
RPC Nov 7; latest tag v488
SN8 Vanta alpha burn (aggregator chain monitor)
222.945 alpha
block 9,447,967; not confirmed by us
Most Recent (through Nov 7)
SN99 registration removed and replaced at block 9,447,194; successor has no identity set
The monitor's event log shows a SubtensorModule NetworkRemoved event for netuid 99 at block 9,447,194 (13:00:24 UTC), with the replacement registration locking 252.775 TAO per the index. Why it matters: Subnet slot churn at the bottom of the roster changes which projects hold emission-eligible netuids, and a no-identity successor gives holders nothing to evaluate. «Only the aggregator's own chain-monitor JSON was read; no taostats or independent outlet check, and the 252.775 TAO lock figure was not re-derived.»
SN8 Vanta records a 222.945 alpha direct burn at block 9,447,967
The aggregator's monitor reports a finalized burn of 222.945066151 SN8 alpha at 15:35 UTC by an account that is not the registered owner; the taostats extrinsic URL returns HTTP 200. Why it matters: Third-party alpha burns reduce circulating SN8 supply without owner action, so they are not a buyback programme signal. «Taostats page is a JavaScript app, so the amount was not read from it; the figure is the aggregator's decoding.»
SN123 MANTIS sets weight to 0 on four forex binary challenges
✓ Verified Barbariandev/MANTIS GitHub commits 9162ad2 and ace548a · Nov 6, 2026 · source
Commit 9162ad2 (06:12 UTC) changes config.py weights for CADUSD, NZDUSD and similar 1H-BINARY challenges from 0.5 to 0 and the README commit ace548a lists CAD, NZD, CHF and XAG at weight 0. Why it matters: Miner reward shifts to the remaining challenges (ETH 1H binary at weight 1.0), so miners tuned to forex pairs earn nothing from those tasks. «Config change in the repo; deployed validator version and the index's BURN_PCT 0.45 to 0.52 change were not checked.»
PR 82 merged Nov 5 at 20:46 UTC adds an optional pool of 1 to 8 prover contexts, with existing clients keeping one context by default. Why it matters: Validators that opt in can clear proof queues faster without a protocol or proof-format change. «Merge only; adoption by validators was not checked.»
SN114 SOMA merges fix keeping Claude Code requests in native Anthropic format
PR 244 merged Nov 5 at 11:28 UTC sends Claude Code benchmark requests to OpenRouter in native format, which per the index avoids dropped cache-control fields and thinking signatures. Why it matters: Benchmark runs become closer to how the agent is actually used, which affects score comparability between miners. «Index description of the dropped fields not independently confirmed beyond the PR title.»
SN62 Ridges merges Docker storage metrics for validators
PR 538 'Feat/expose storage docker' merged Nov 5 at 23:36 UTC; the index says it adds backing-filesystem space and inode metrics. Why it matters: Disk exhaustion is a common validator failure mode, so the metrics make sandbox capacity problems visible earlier. «Only the PR title and merge time were read; metric details are from the index.»
Key Trends
Subnets re-weight miner incentives in config — SN123 MANTIS zeroed four forex challenge weights on Nov 6, redirecting reward within one subnet without a chain change.
Slot churn continues — The index logs SN99 removed and re-registered at block 9,447,194 and SN8 burns by non-owners on Nov 6; both rely on aggregator chain-monitor data.
Validator-side tooling over features — SN17 proof pooling and SN62 storage metrics merged Nov 5, both operational changes for validators rather than new products.
Ones to Watch
Hashed-accounts gate (post-quantum wallets) — The index says HashedAccountsEnabled was still false at block 9,447,649 on Nov 6; check whether it is true by Nov 10.
SN89 InfiniteQuant daily change cap — Commit e323bb9 (Nov 6, 03:59 UTC) allows 16 extra reduce-only changes from Nov 7 00:00 UTC; the index says weekly Agent payments are planned Nov 9 at 08:00 UTC.
📐 Methodology Index edition used: Nov 6, 2026 (the Nov 7 URL failed to load). Star ratings and 'verified' labels were ignored; tiers rest on GitHub API reads and Finney RPC.
📐 Methodology Finney RPC (entrypoint-finney.opentensor.ai) returned node-subtensor spec_version 488 on Nov 7; newest RaoFoundation/subtensor release tag is v488 (Nov 5 21:07 UTC; PR 3304 'Release 488' merged Nov 5 19:08 UTC). CoinGecko pull Nov 7 13:10 UTC: $224.51, +0.86% 24h.
📐 Methodology Not opened or not usable: X posts (OpenTensor post-quantum explainer, SN92 REAX 1.3, SN64 Chutes) were not fetched, so those items were dropped; the SN92 Hugging Face repo exists (apache-2.0, modified Nov 3) but the 74.0 Decision Index score was not verified. No independent outlet coverage found for any item.
