BTC rejected at $81,257 by the 50-week moving average, back under $79K
Bitcoin rose as much as 3% to $81,257 — a three-month high and its first move above $80,000 since mid-May — before erasing the gain. It trades at $78,427 this morning, down 0.46% on 24h.
The 50-week MA is the level that decides whether this is a bottom or a bear-market rally. It rejected on the first attempt, so the burden of proof stays with the bulls.
Fear & Greed gives back nine points in a single session, 74 to 65
The index remains in Greed territory but posted its sharpest one-day decline of the current rally, tracking the failed breakout.
Sentiment that fragile after one rejected candle means positioning is thin and reactive. It also means there is room to run if $81K is retested successfully.
Majors move together to the downside — AVAX the weakest at -2.33%
ETH $2,459.15 (-0.46%), SOL $96.79 (-1.26%), AVAX $7.33 (-2.33%). Correlations tightened as the breakout failed.
AVAX underperforming BTC by nearly two points on a risk-off day is the pattern to watch for the watchlist book — beta cuts both ways and the C-Chain names amplify it.