BTC reclaims $78K but the 50-week average at $81,822 is still unbroken
Bitcoin trades at $78,183, up 1.39% on the day and roughly 22% on the week. Analysts flag a weekly close above the $81,822 50-week moving average as the confirmation level for a decisive trend flip.
$3,600 of headroom separates a violent bear-market rally from a confirmed trend change. Until that weekly close prints, treat strength as tactical.
Bessent announces a maximum-pressure financial campaign against Iran
The Treasury Secretary described it as “the single greatest financial offensive ever marshalled against an adversary.” Analysts flag Strait of Hormuz escalation as the transmission channel to risk assets.
The same official whose buyback expansion drove last week’s rally is now the source of geopolitical tail risk. Energy-price shocks also hit miner economics directly — this is a two-panel story.
Wintermute grows its short book 30% into the recovery
Hyperliquid short exposure rose from $146.19M to $190.77M across BTC, ETH, SOL, HYPE and XRP.
Market-maker inventory is not a directional forecast, but a 30% increase in short notional during a bounce says the desk expects to be filled lower. Respect it as a liquidity map, not a prediction.